Last summer, the Atlanta Regional Commission estimated Henry County added 5,900 new residents in a one-year period. New 2022 population estimates released by the US Census Bureau at the end of March paint a different picture.
The Census Bureau estimated Henry County saw 3,300 new residents from July 2021 to July 2022. The census released their 2022 county population estimates on March 30, 2023.
2022 Population Estimates
The US Census estimates Henry County had a population of 248,364 on July 1, 2022. This is an increase of 3,341 from one year prior. The 2021 estimate was 245,023. By comparison, the census estimated 3,175 new residents between 2020 to 2021. The census estimates use July 1 as their benchmark.
The census population estimates would reflect a 1.31% and 1.36% growth rate. This would be from 2020 to 2021, then 2021 to 2022.
ARC Estimates
In contrast, the ARC 2022 population estimates suggest a much faster growth rate. The ARC uses April 1 for their benchmark. They estimated Henry County had 252.5 thousand residents on April 1, 2022.
The regional commission estimated 5,918 new residents moved to Henry County between 2021 to 2022. This equates to a 2.7% growth rate. Said rate would be the fastest-growing in metro Atlanta during this time period.
The ARC population estimates typically release in the summer. Their next estimate would look at April 2022 to April 2023.
Which Number Is More Accurate?
With the Atlanta Regional Commission and Census Bureau differing almost two to one, which estimate is more accurate? Another data set one can look at is building permits.
In 2021, Henry County saw 2,400 new single-family homes receive permits. In addition, 1,200 multifamily units began work. One year later, single-family construction slowed in 2022. The county had about 1,600 new single-family permits. Multifamily construction added another 1,200 units consistent with 2021.
The Census Bureau documents the US has an average of 2.6 persons per household. When considering this alongside 2,400 new homes in 2021, this equates to 6,240 new residents. The new multifamily units would add more residents.
Considering the above, the ARC population estimate may be more accurate. It is worth noting these are all estimates. Only the census every ten years provides a complete population count.
Featured image shows a new subdivision under construction. Stock photo.
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